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Generated Oct 22, 2026
  1. Programmable
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  3. Coinbase
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growth playbook · Oct 22, 2026

coinbase.com (opens in a new tab)

Coinbase growth playbook

Diagnosis

Coinbase is widening from a crypto exchange into an everything exchange while monthly transacting users fell to 7.6 million from 8.7 million a year earlier.

Its hiring shows the levers: hundreds of millions in paid social and mobile acquisition, a notifications platform for retention, trading product marketing for win-back, a social team for prediction markets, and infrastructure marketing for stablecoin and agent payments.

The gaps are in the funnel those hires feed: the website fails Core Web Vitals for real visitors (4.8 seconds on phones), offer searches are answered by affiliates, and the new products need their own entry points. This playbook fixes the paid landing speed and offer pages first, then wins back traders with new instruments, measures paid incrementality, and builds Predict, agent-payments and cross-asset growth loops.

Growth Score

7/10

Biggest Opportunity

Use the new products (Predict, stocks, derivatives, agent payments) as reasons to return and new audiences to reach, on a faster site.

Biggest Risk

Robinhood, Kraken, Polymarket and Kalshi compete for the same traders, and trading activity moves with market conditions, so acquisition spend can be wasted if landing and onboarding do not convert.

01

Start here

The three moves to make first. Each one is written up in full below.

  1. 1

    Make the web pages paid social lands on load in under 2.5 seconds on phones

    Pull the 20 URLs with the most paid-social sessions and run each through PageSpeed.

    High impact First result in 1 month
  2. 2

    Publish Coinbase's own page for the Predict and new-user offers, so affiliates stop defining them

    List the top 10 search queries about Coinbase offers and who ranks for each.

    High impact First result in 1 month
  3. 3

    Fix the two broken Base developer links on the homepage and add a weekly link check

    Replace the two links today.

    Medium impact First result in 1 day

02

Your idea portfolio

22 ideas, grouped by when to run them. Open any idea for how to run it: the steps, who to approach, copy you can use, and how to measure it.

  • 7 ideas are marked Unexpected: plays you are unlikely to have tried.

Every idea placed by the effort it takes against the impact it could have. Quick wins sit top left; select a number to open that idea. The filters below narrow the list by status, timing, category and what Programmable can build.

Effort vs impactEach number is an idea. Select one to open it.
Impact →
Quick wins · 2Big bets · 12Fill-ins · 4Reconsider · 4
Effort →

Showing 22 of 22 ideas

This week 6

Quick wins with a clear first action.

  • 01

    Coinbase is hiring to run "hundreds of millions in ad spend" across Meta, TikTok, Snap and Reddit and to test "app store/landing experiences". Those ads are mostly seen on phones. Yet Chrome's real-visitor data for www.coinbase.com shows the main content taking 4.8 seconds to appear on phones at the 75th percentile, with 31% of mobile page loads over 4 seconds, and 6.3 seconds on desktop. The origin fails Core Web Vitals on both devices, so a share of every paid click waits on a blank or shifting page before it ever reaches Sign up.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 1 month Senior Performance Marketing…

    First action

    Pull the 20 URLs with the most paid-social sessions and run each through PageSpeed.

    How to measure it

    Phone LCP at the 75th percentile

    Now
    –
    Target
    Under 2.5 seconds
    By
    90 days

    Steps

    1. 1

      List landing URLs

      Top 20 by paid-social and app-install-fallback traffic.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA 2 days

    2. 2

      Measure

      PageSpeed lab plus Chrome field data per URL.

      Web Platform Engineering 2 days

    3. 3

      Find the LCP element

      Hero image, ticker or font on each page.

      Web Platform Engineering 3 days

    4. 4

      Fix the top causes

      Preload the hero, defer non-critical scripts, size the price widgets.

      Web Platform Engineering 3 weeks

    5. 5

      Run a holdout

      Split one market's paid-social traffic between old and fast pages.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA 3 weeks

    6. 6

      Measure downstream

      Signup, verification and first purchase by page version.

      Data Science 2 weeks

    7. 7

      Set a budget

      An LCP limit every new landing page must meet.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 week

    8. 8

      Report

      Speed next to cost per acquired user on the paid dashboard.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA monthly

    First result
    1 month
    Cost
    Engineering time
    Owner
    Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA

    Smallest test

    Speed up the single most-used paid landing page and compare its signup rate for two weeks.

    Why it works

    Treat page speed as part of the paid-social test plan. List the 20 web URLs that receive paid and social traffic (signup, offer, price and Predict pages), measure each in PageSpeed and in field data, and fix the biggest causes of slow LCP first: the hero image or animated price ticker, render-blocking scripts and late-loading fonts. Reserve space for the price widgets that shift the layout. Then run a holdout: half of one market's paid-social traffic to the faster page, half to the current one, and compare signup and first-purchase rates.

    Every second of delay on mobile loses visitors before they act, and the loss scales with the ad budget. A speed fix improves every campaign at once, which no single creative test can do.

    Ready to use

    ChecklistFast landing page check

    [ ] LCP element identified per page
    [ ] Hero image preloaded and sized for phones
    [ ] Price ticker renders a static first value
    [ ] Non-critical scripts deferred
    [ ] Fonts preloaded or system fallback
    [ ] Space reserved for every widget (no layout shift)
    [ ] PageSpeed mobile run saved before and after
    [ ] Holdout set up in one market

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Field data moves slowly

      Use the holdout for the decision and field data to confirm.

    • Price widgets are dynamic

      Reserve their space and render a static first value.

    Evidence

    • Google PageSpeed (Chrome UX Report)Real Chrome visitors to www.coinbase.com over the 28 days to October 19, 2026: on phones the 75th-percentile Largest Contentful Paint is 4.8 seconds and 31% of page loads take longer than 4 seconds (poor); layout shift is 0.12 and interaction delay 278 ms. On desktop LCP is 6.3 seconds with 42% of loads poor and layout shift 0.16. Google's "good" thresholds are 2.5 seconds, 0.1 and 200 ms, so the origin fails Core Web Vitals on both devices.Source
    • HiringSenior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA (posted September 15, 2026): owns "hundreds of millions in ad spend across paid social and mobile channels" (Meta, TikTok, Snap, Reddit and mobile display) "to drive new user acquisition at or above ROI targets", with a testing agenda "across creatives, audiences, bidding strategies, and app store/landing experiences" and measurement through MMM, SKAN, MMPs and "incrementality tests".Source
    • Your websiteThe homepage offers "Earn up to $2,000 when you buy $50 in crypto" next to Sign up, and links to Base developer pages www.base.org/build/onchainkit ("OnchainKit") and www.base.org/build/base-account ("Base Accounts (Smart Wallets)"), both of which return 404 (checked October 21, 2026).Source
  • 02

    People searching for a Coinbase predictions promo code or the "up to $2,000" bonus are answered by sportsbook-review and affiliate sites, which describe the terms differently. Coinbase's own homepage promises the bonus, but the explanations searchers read are written by others.

    High impactLow effort First result in 1 month Social Media Manager

    First action

    List the top 10 search queries about Coinbase offers and who ranks for each.

    How to measure it

    Offer-query clicks to coinbase.com

    Now
    –
    Target
    +50%
    By
    90 days

    Steps

    1. 1

      Pull queries

      Offer and promo searches from Search Console.

      SEO lead 2 days

    2. 2

      Write terms pages

      One per program, plain language.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions 1 week

    3. 3

      Compliance review

      Every claim and state restriction.

      Legal and Compliance 1 week

    4. 4

      Publish and link

      Homepage banner, help center and social bios.

      Web Platform Engineering 2 days

    5. 5

      Update affiliate rules

      Partners link to the official page.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA 1 week

    6. 6

      Track

      Rankings and support tickets about the offer.

      SEO lead monthly

    First result
    1 month
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Social Media Manager, Predictions

    Smallest test

    Publish the Predict offer page and watch where it ranks in two weeks.

    Why it works

    Publish one official, indexable offer page per program (new-user incentive and Predict) with the exact terms, eligible states, how the reward is paid and an FAQ in plain language, linked from the homepage banner, the help article and @CoinbasePredict. Add the official page to the affiliate program's rules so partners link to it.

    Searchers trust the brand's own page when it exists and answers the question, and clear terms reduce support tickets and complaints about the bonus.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Offer terms change often

      One source of truth that the help center also reads from.

    Evidence

    • Search resultsSearches for "Coinbase predictions promo code" and the new-user bonus are answered by third-party affiliate and sportsbook-review sites (for example sportsbookreview.com, next.io and wallstreetsurvivor.com), which describe the "up to $2,000" offer with differing terms, including one that says 99% of new users receive $30 to $100.Source
    • Your websiteThe homepage offers "Earn up to $2,000 when you buy $50 in crypto" next to Sign up, and links to Base developer pages www.base.org/build/onchainkit ("OnchainKit") and www.base.org/build/base-account ("Base Accounts (Smart Wallets)"), both of which return 404 (checked October 21, 2026).Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
    • HiringSocial Media Manager, Predictions (posted October 15, 2026): grows "Coinbase's prediction markets presence, starting with @CoinbasePredict on X", turning "live markets into real-time content across finance, sports, politics and culture"; builds "AI-assisted workflows that let the team post fast and stay compliant" with legal and compliance.Source
  • 03

    The homepage links to OnchainKit and Base Accounts on base.org, and both links return 404. These are the entry points for developers Coinbase wants building on Base and with its agent tools.

    Medium impactLow effort First result in 1 day Web Platform Engineering

    First action

    Replace the two links today.

    How to measure it

    Broken homepage links

    Now
    –
    Target
    0
    By
    1 week

    Steps

    1. 1

      Find the new URLs

      Current OnchainKit and Base Account docs.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 hour

    2. 2

      Update the links

      Homepage and navigation.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 hour

    3. 3

      Add redirects request

      Ask the Base team to redirect old paths.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 day

    4. 4

      Automate the check

      Weekly crawl of navigation links.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 day

    5. 5

      Alert

      Failures to the team channel.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 hour

    6. 6

      Review

      Monthly list of fixed links.

      Web Platform Engineering monthly

    First result
    1 day
    Cost
    $0
    Owner
    Web Platform Engineering

    Smallest test

    Fix the two links.

    Why it works

    Point both links at the current Base documentation, then add an automated weekly check of every outbound link in the homepage and global navigation, with failures posted to the web team's channel.

    Developers judge a platform by its docs, and a dead link from the flagship page costs trust for nothing.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Docs move again

      The weekly check catches it.

    Evidence

    • Your websiteThe homepage offers "Earn up to $2,000 when you buy $50 in crypto" next to Sign up, and links to Base developer pages www.base.org/build/onchainkit ("OnchainKit") and www.base.org/build/base-account ("Base Accounts (Smart Wallets)"), both of which return 404 (checked October 21, 2026).Source
    • Developer reachCoinbase's npm packages get about 2.5 million downloads a week, led by @coinbase/wallet-sdk (1.86 million) and @coinbase/cdp-sdk (663,000); the agentkit repository ("Every AI Agent deserves a wallet.") has 1,336 GitHub stars and was updated October 14, 2026.Source
  • 04

    The notifications PM must improve "opt-in optimization" and reduce notification fatigue, and Predict covers very different topics. A crypto trader who is sent sports market alerts will mute everything, including price alerts.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 1 month Product Manager II

    First action

    Count Predict users who disabled push in the last 30 days.

    How to measure it

    Predict push opt-outs

    Now
    –
    Target
    -30%
    By
    90 days

    Steps

    1. 1

      Define topics

      Four to six topic groups.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 2 days

    2. 2

      Design the picker

      At first Predict use and in settings.

      Product Designer 1 week

    3. 3

      Tag markets

      Topic per market.

      Senior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations) 1 week

    4. 4

      Filter sends

      Only followed topics.

      Senior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations) 1 week

    5. 5

      Test

      Against current alerts.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 4 weeks

    6. 6

      Review

      Opt-outs and return visits.

      Data Science monthly

    First result
    1 month
    Cost
    Engineering time
    Owner
    Product Manager II, Growth Notifications

    Smallest test

    Run the picker for 5% of new Predict users.

    Why it works

    Ask Predict users which topics they follow at first use, send market alerts only for those topics, and let users change them from any notification. Measure push opt-out and Predict return visits against a control group that gets the current alerts.

    Relevant alerts keep push permission alive, which is the most valuable channel the team owns.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Users skip the picker

      Infer topics from trades and confirm later.

    Evidence

    • HiringProduct Manager II, Growth - Notifications (posted September 15, 2026): owns "the end-to-end notifications platform spanning push, in-app, and email", using "ML-powered relevance to increase activation, re-engagement, and lifetime value", building relevance models to "reduce notification fatigue", and A/B testing "notification timing, content, and channel selection"; experience with "opt-in optimization, and frequency management" is required.Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
    • HiringSenior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations): the team owns "notifications at scale, incentives and referral platforms, user targeting and segmentation, lifecycle communications, and ML ranking that power more than 50% of Coinbase web and app surfaces" for Retail, Institutional, Base and international teams.Source
  • 05

    The Predictions social role must post in real time about live markets and "stay compliant". Real-time posts and legal review pull in opposite directions unless the formats are approved in advance.

    Medium impactLow effort First result in 1 month Social Media Manager

    First action

    Draft the five templates.

    How to measure it

    Median time to post

    Now
    –
    Target
    Under 15 minutes
    By
    60 days

    Steps

    1. 1

      Draft templates

      Five formats.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions 3 days

    2. 2

      Approve

      Disclosures and wording.

      Legal and Compliance 1 week

    3. 3

      Build tools

      Fill templates from live odds.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions 1 week

    4. 4

      Train

      Who may post what.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions 1 day

    5. 5

      Audit

      Weekly sample of posts.

      Legal and Compliance weekly

    6. 6

      Optimize

      Engagement by template.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions monthly

    First result
    1 month
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Social Media Manager, Predictions

    Smallest test

    Run one template for a week of live events.

    Why it works

    Agree five post templates with legal and compliance (odds move, market opens, market resolves, explainer, community question) with fixed disclosures. Posts that fit a template go out without new review; anything else follows the normal process.

    Speed is the whole value of social around live events, and pre-approval keeps it safe.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • A post breaks rules

      Templates fix the risky parts; audits catch the rest.

    Evidence

    • HiringSocial Media Manager, Predictions (posted October 15, 2026): grows "Coinbase's prediction markets presence, starting with @CoinbasePredict on X", turning "live markets into real-time content across finance, sports, politics and culture"; builds "AI-assisted workflows that let the team post fast and stay compliant" with legal and compliance.Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
  • 06

    robots.txt welcomes every crawler and lists 15 sitemaps, including price, prediction-market and learn pages. But a standard HTTP client gets a 403 on the homepage, price pages and the help center. If the same edge rules catch some search or AI-assistant crawlers, those price and learn pages lose rankings and citations without anyone noticing.

    High impactLow effort First result in 1 month SEO lead

    First action

    Pull last week's 403 responses by user agent from the edge logs.

    How to measure it

    Verified-crawler 403s

    Now
    –
    Target
    Near 0
    By
    30 days

    Steps

    1. 1

      Pull logs

      403s by user agent and path.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 day

    2. 2

      Verify crawlers

      Reverse DNS or published IP ranges.

      Web Platform Engineering 2 days

    3. 3

      Adjust rules

      Allow verified search and AI crawlers.

      Web Platform Engineering 2 days

    4. 4

      Check tools

      Search Console and Bing Webmaster crawl reports.

      SEO lead 1 day

    5. 5

      Monitor

      Monthly blocked-crawler report.

      Web Platform Engineering monthly

    6. 6

      Measure

      Indexed pages and AI citations for price pages.

      SEO lead quarterly

    First result
    1 month
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    SEO lead

    Smallest test

    Check one price page in Search Console's URL inspection.

    Why it works

    For each major crawler (Googlebot, Bingbot, Applebot and the search crawlers of ChatGPT, Perplexity and Claude) check server logs and the vendors' own tools for 403s in the last 30 days. Allow the verified ones through the bot rules, and add a monthly report of blocked crawler requests by path.

    Price, how-to-buy and learn pages win new users from search and AI answers only if the crawlers can read them.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Bots pretend to be crawlers

      Allow only verified crawler IPs.

    Evidence

    • Your websiterobots.txt lists 15 sitemaps (converter, derivatives, prediction markets, equities, how-to-buy, prices, price prediction, staking, learn, Bytes, institutional, blog, marketing, advanced, careers) and explicitly allows social preview bots and AdsBot-Google. On October 21, 2026 a standard HTTP client received HTTP 403 for the homepage, /price/bitcoin, /predictions, /blog, /affiliates and help.coinbase.com, while robots.txt itself loaded.Source
    • News coverageThe "everything exchange": announced January 2026 and presented at a June 2026 System Update event, it brings crypto, equities, prediction markets and commodities into one app, with tokenized stocks backed one-for-one, launching first outside the US, and US stock and ETF trading with portfolio transfers from other brokerages.Source

This quarter 10

The core plays for the next three months.

  • 07

    Monthly transacting users fell to 7.6 million from 8.7 million, mainly because of fewer trading users, and the trading PMM is hired to run win-back programs for churned traders. Many of them left before perpetual futures, options, stocks and Predict were in the app.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 1 quarter Senior Product Marketing Mana…

    First action

    Size lapsed traders by last product used.

    How to measure it

    Lapsed traders who trade again

    Now
    –
    Target
    5% of segment
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Segment

      By last product and recency.

      Data Science 1 week

    2. 2

      Map offers

      One new instrument per segment.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 1 week

    3. 3

      Write messages

      Per segment and channel.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 2 weeks

    4. 4

      Compliance review

      Derivatives promotions.

      Legal and Compliance 1 week

    5. 5

      Send with holdout

      Email, push and retargeting.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 1 month

    6. 6

      Measure

      Reactivation and volume against holdout.

      Data Science monthly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Existing channels
    Owner
    Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading

    Smallest test

    Send one segment one message with a 20% holdout.

    Why it works

    Segment lapsed traders by what they used to trade, and for each segment show what is new that fits them: perps for former active crypto traders, stocks for those who also hold a broker account, Predict for event-driven traders. Send through email, push and paid retargeting, with a holdout group.

    A reason to return beats a fee discount, and the everything-exchange launches give Coinbase new reasons every quarter.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Derivatives are not for everyone

      Eligibility checks and clear risk wording.

    Evidence

    • SEC filingCoinbase's 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026: monthly transacting users were 7.6 million, down from 8.7 million a year earlier, "primarily" because of fewer trading users amid market conditions; trading volume is no longer reported as a key metric.Source
    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Trading: defines "the narrative that Coinbase is the best place to trade across asset classes, from spot to perpetual futures and options"; runs "win-back programs targeting churned traders" and "trading competitions, incentives, event-driven campaigns"; studies segments "from first-time derivatives users to active traders with accounts at competitors".Source
    • News coverageThe "everything exchange": announced January 2026 and presented at a June 2026 System Update event, it brings crypto, equities, prediction markets and commodities into one app, with tokenized stocks backed one-for-one, launching first outside the US, and US stock and ETF trading with portfolio transfers from other brokerages.Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
  • 08

    Robinhood's homepage now says "Trade All in One Place", and Kraken sells crypto, stocks and futures. Coinbase plans portfolio transfers from other brokerages, and the trading PMM is told to study traders with accounts at competitors.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 2 quarters Senior Product Marketing Mana…

    First action

    Survey 1,000 active users on where else they hold stocks.

    How to measure it

    Transferred-in accounts

    Now
    –
    Target
    50,000
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Survey

      Where users hold stocks.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 2 weeks

    2. 2

      Design the flow

      Transfer steps and status.

      Product Designer 1 month

    3. 3

      Write the page

      Fees, timing, what moves.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 2 weeks

    4. 4

      Legal review

      Comparison claims.

      Legal and Compliance 2 weeks

    5. 5

      Launch to users

      Email and in-app.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 1 month

    6. 6

      Scale in paid

      Lookalike audiences.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA 1 month

    First result
    2 quarters
    Cost
    Transfer incentives
    Owner
    Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading

    Smallest test

    Launch the page to a waitlist first.

    Why it works

    When transfers launch, build a dedicated transfer page and flow: what moves, how long it takes, what it costs, and side-by-side fees. Target existing Coinbase users who hold stocks elsewhere first, then lookalikes in paid social.

    Bringing assets already owned is a bigger lift than a first purchase, and existing users are the cheapest audience.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Transfers fail or stall

      Status updates at every step.

    Evidence

    • News coverageThe "everything exchange": announced January 2026 and presented at a June 2026 System Update event, it brings crypto, equities, prediction markets and commodities into one app, with tokenized stocks backed one-for-one, launching first outside the US, and US stock and ETF trading with portfolio transfers from other brokerages.Source
    • Competitor researchRivals' own homepages: Robinhood, "24/5 Commission-Free Stock Trading & Investing" with the headline "Trade All in One Place"; Kraken, "Own the Power of Your Money - Crypto, Stocks & more", "Trade crypto, stocks, futures, staking and more"; Polymarket, "The World's Largest Prediction Market". Kalshi also sells event contracts directly.Source
    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Trading: defines "the narrative that Coinbase is the best place to trade across asset classes, from spot to perpetual futures and options"; runs "win-back programs targeting churned traders" and "trading competitions, incentives, event-driven campaigns"; studies segments "from first-time derivatives users to active traders with accounts at competitors".Source
    • HiringSenior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA (posted September 15, 2026): owns "hundreds of millions in ad spend across paid social and mobile channels" (Meta, TikTok, Snap, Reddit and mobile display) "to drive new user acquisition at or above ROI targets", with a testing agenda "across creatives, audiences, bidding strategies, and app store/landing experiences" and measurement through MMM, SKAN, MMPs and "incrementality tests".Source
  • 09

    The UA role asks for "incrementality tests" across hundreds of millions in spend. Platform-reported results overstate paid social, especially after Apple's privacy changes.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 1 quarter Senior Performance Marketing…

    First action

    Pick matched regions for the first channel.

    How to measure it

    Incremental CAC

    Now
    –
    Target
    -15%
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Pick markets

      Matched region pairs.

      Data Science 1 week

    2. 2

      Design tests

      One channel at a time.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA 1 week

    3. 3

      Run

      Four weeks each.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA 1 quarter

    4. 4

      Measure

      Verified signups and purchases.

      Data Science 1 month

    5. 5

      Calibrate

      Feed the media-mix model.

      Data Science 2 weeks

    6. 6

      Reallocate

      Budget by incrementality.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA quarterly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Lost conversions in holdout regions
    Owner
    Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA

    Smallest test

    Run one Reddit holdout.

    Why it works

    Run geo-split holdouts per channel (Meta, TikTok, Snap, Reddit): pause or double spend in matched regions for four weeks and measure verified signups and first purchases. Use the results to calibrate the media-mix model and shift budget.

    Measured incrementality usually moves budget between channels by double digits, which is worth more than any creative test.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Market swings distort tests

      Run during stable weeks and repeat.

    Evidence

    • HiringSenior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA (posted September 15, 2026): owns "hundreds of millions in ad spend across paid social and mobile channels" (Meta, TikTok, Snap, Reddit and mobile display) "to drive new user acquisition at or above ROI targets", with a testing agenda "across creatives, audiences, bidding strategies, and app store/landing experiences" and measurement through MMM, SKAN, MMPs and "incrementality tests".Source
    • SEC filingCoinbase's 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026: monthly transacting users were 7.6 million, down from 8.7 million a year earlier, "primarily" because of fewer trading users amid market conditions; trading volume is no longer reported as a key metric.Source
  • 10

    The Predictions social team turns live markets into content about sports, politics and culture, and the UA team runs paid social on Meta, TikTok, Snap and Reddit. Crypto ads reach crypto people; a live market on a game or award show reaches everyone else.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 1 quarter Senior Performance Marketing…

    First action

    Pick last week's two best Predict posts.

    How to measure it

    Predict-first signups

    Now
    –
    Target
    +20%
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Rank posts

      By engagement.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions weekly

    2. 2

      Adapt as ads

      Compliant template.

      Creative team weekly

    3. 3

      Approve

      Event-contract promotion rules.

      Legal and Compliance weekly

    4. 4

      Target

      Sports and culture audiences.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA weekly

    5. 5

      Measure

      Predict-first signups and CAC.

      Data Science weekly

    6. 6

      Scale

      Best hooks to more channels.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA monthly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Existing ad budget
    Owner
    Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA

    Smallest test

    Run two Predict ads on Reddit.

    Why it works

    Each week, take the two best @CoinbasePredict posts by engagement, adapt them as ads with a compliant template, and target sports and culture audiences in states where Predict is available. Track signups that start with a Predict trade.

    Event-based creative widens the audience beyond crypto and reuses content already made and approved.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Platform rules on event contracts

      Check each platform's policy before launch.

    Evidence

    • HiringSocial Media Manager, Predictions (posted October 15, 2026): grows "Coinbase's prediction markets presence, starting with @CoinbasePredict on X", turning "live markets into real-time content across finance, sports, politics and culture"; builds "AI-assisted workflows that let the team post fast and stay compliant" with legal and compliance.Source
    • HiringSenior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA (posted September 15, 2026): owns "hundreds of millions in ad spend across paid social and mobile channels" (Meta, TikTok, Snap, Reddit and mobile display) "to drive new user acquisition at or above ROI targets", with a testing agenda "across creatives, audiences, bidding strategies, and app store/landing experiences" and measurement through MMM, SKAN, MMPs and "incrementality tests".Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
  • 11

    The notifications PM is asked to test "timing, content, and channel selection" with ML relevance. Growth Foundations already powers ranking on more than half of Coinbase's surfaces.

    High impactHigh effort First result in 2 quarters Product Manager II

    First action

    Define the holdout group and metrics.

    How to measure it

    90-day retention vs holdout

    Now
    –
    Target
    +2 points
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Define metrics

      Retention, opt-outs, revenue.

      Data Science 1 week

    2. 2

      Build features

      Past opens and activity times.

      Senior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations) 1 month

    3. 3

      Train model

      Channel and hour.

      Data Science 1 month

    4. 4

      Set holdout

      5% on current rules.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 1 week

    5. 5

      Roll out

      Gradually.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 1 quarter

    6. 6

      Report

      Quarterly against holdout.

      Data Science quarterly

    First result
    2 quarters
    Cost
    Engineering time
    Owner
    Product Manager II, Growth Notifications

    Smallest test

    Test send-hour only for one message type.

    Why it works

    Build a model that chooses push, in-app or email and the send hour per user, keep 5% of users on the current rules for a full quarter, and measure retention and opt-outs, not just opens.

    A long holdout shows the real retention effect and keeps the team honest about fatigue.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Over-optimizing for opens

      Measure retention and opt-outs.

    Evidence

    • HiringProduct Manager II, Growth - Notifications (posted September 15, 2026): owns "the end-to-end notifications platform spanning push, in-app, and email", using "ML-powered relevance to increase activation, re-engagement, and lifetime value", building relevance models to "reduce notification fatigue", and A/B testing "notification timing, content, and channel selection"; experience with "opt-in optimization, and frequency management" is required.Source
    • HiringSenior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations): the team owns "notifications at scale, incentives and referral platforms, user targeting and segmentation, lifecycle communications, and ML ranking that power more than 50% of Coinbase web and app surfaces" for Retail, Institutional, Base and international teams.Source
    • DNS checkcoinbase.com publishes DMARC with "p=reject" and a strict SPF record ("-all"), so email from the domain is already protected against spoofing, which matters for lifecycle email.Source
  • 12

    Growth Foundations owns the incentives and referral platform. Prediction markets are social by nature: people argue about outcomes with friends.

    Medium impactMedium effort First result in 1 quarter Senior Software Engineer

    First action

    Design the market card.

    How to measure it

    Referral signups from market cards

    Now
    –
    Target
    20,000
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Design the card

      Odds and market.

      Product Designer 1 week

    2. 2

      Deep link

      Opens the market.

      Senior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations) 2 weeks

    3. 3

      Set rewards

      Within offer rules.

      Legal and Compliance 2 weeks

    4. 4

      Launch

      Top markets first.

      Senior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations) 1 week

    5. 5

      Promote

      @CoinbasePredict.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions ongoing

    6. 6

      Measure

      Signups and first trades.

      Data Science monthly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Referral rewards
    Owner
    Senior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer Growth Foundations)

    Smallest test

    Launch the share card without rewards first.

    Why it works

    Add a share button to each market that creates a card with the current odds and a referral link that opens that market. Reward both people after the friend's first trade, within the offer rules.

    A specific market is a far stronger invitation than a generic referral link.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Rewards attract abuse

      Pay after verified first trade.

    Evidence

    • HiringSenior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations): the team owns "notifications at scale, incentives and referral platforms, user targeting and segmentation, lifecycle communications, and ML ranking that power more than 50% of Coinbase web and app surfaces" for Retail, Institutional, Base and international teams.Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
    • HiringSocial Media Manager, Predictions (posted October 15, 2026): grows "Coinbase's prediction markets presence, starting with @CoinbasePredict on X", turning "live markets into real-time content across finance, sports, politics and culture"; builds "AI-assisted workflows that let the team post fast and stay compliant" with legal and compliance.Source
  • 13

    The infrastructure PMM is hired to reach PSPs, money movers, cross-border companies and banks. Coinbase cites about $1 trillion a year in stablecoin payments; each buyer type needs its own proof.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 1 quarter Senior Product Marketing Mana…

    First action

    Pick the first buyer type and corridor.

    How to measure it

    Qualified payments leads

    Now
    –
    Target
    +40%
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Interview sales

      Top questions per buyer.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 1 week

    2. 2

      Write pages

      Four buyer types.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 1 month

    3. 3

      Build calculator

      Cross-border savings.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 month

    4. 4

      Legal review

      Claims.

      Legal and Compliance 2 weeks

    5. 5

      Route leads

      To the right sellers.

      Sales Operations 1 week

    6. 6

      Measure

      Leads and pipeline.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure monthly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure

    Smallest test

    Publish the cross-border page first.

    Why it works

    Build one page per buyer type with its use case, settlement times, costs and a calculator (for cross-border: savings on a typical corridor), plus a demo request routed to sales.

    Specific pages convert specialist buyers better than a general payments page.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Claims vary by region

      Mark availability per country.

    Evidence

    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure (posted October 15, 2026): builds demand for "stablecoin payments, trading, agentic finance, and custody products" among "PSPs, money movers, cross-border companies, and banks"; drives marketing for "Coinbase for Agents and agentic payments"; runs co-marketing "with tier-one partners".Source
    • News coverageIn July 2026 Coinbase Business began accepting USDC payments from AI agents over x402; Brian Armstrong cited about $1 trillion a year in stablecoin payments on Coinbase and more than 160 million x402 payments over the past year.Source
  • 14

    The agentkit repository and Coinbase's SDKs reach developers at scale (about 2.5 million npm downloads a week), and Coinbase Business now accepts payments from AI agents over x402. The PMM must drive marketing for agentic payments.

    High impactMedium effort First result in 2 quarters Senior Product Marketing Mana…

    First action

    Add a quickstart link to the agentkit README.

    How to measure it

    Developer-sourced Business accounts

    Now
    –
    Target
    2,000
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Write quickstart

      Get paid by agents.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 2 weeks

    2. 2

      Sample apps

      Three examples.

      Developer Relations 1 month

    3. 3

      Link everywhere

      READMEs and docs.

      Developer Relations 1 week

    4. 4

      Track

      Installs to accounts.

      Data Science 2 weeks

    5. 5

      Promote

      Developer social and events.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure ongoing

    6. 6

      Review

      Funnel monthly.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure monthly

    First result
    2 quarters
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure

    Smallest test

    Add the README link this week.

    Why it works

    Add a clear path from the SDK docs and repositories to a Coinbase Business account: a "get paid by agents" quickstart, sample apps, and an in-docs signup. Track SDK installs to accounts.

    Developers who already use the tools are the cheapest business customers.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Developers dislike sales

      Self-serve first; sales only on request.

    Evidence

    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure (posted October 15, 2026): builds demand for "stablecoin payments, trading, agentic finance, and custody products" among "PSPs, money movers, cross-border companies, and banks"; drives marketing for "Coinbase for Agents and agentic payments"; runs co-marketing "with tier-one partners".Source
    • News coverageIn July 2026 Coinbase Business began accepting USDC payments from AI agents over x402; Brian Armstrong cited about $1 trillion a year in stablecoin payments on Coinbase and more than 160 million x402 payments over the past year.Source
    • Developer reachCoinbase's npm packages get about 2.5 million downloads a week, led by @coinbase/wallet-sdk (1.86 million) and @coinbase/cdp-sdk (663,000); the agentkit repository ("Every AI Agent deserves a wallet.") has 1,336 GitHub stars and was updated October 14, 2026.Source
  • 15

    The Prime and Markets PMM must drive clarity about what is live and what action clients should take across regions with different rules. Institutional buyers ask this on every call.

    Medium impactMedium effort First result in 1 quarter Product Marketing Manager

    First action

    Draft the matrix from internal launch notes.

    How to measure it

    Availability questions to sales

    Now
    –
    Target
    -30%
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Collect status

      Per product and region.

      Product Marketing Manager, Prime & Markets 2 weeks

    2. 2

      Legal review

      Wording per region.

      Legal and Compliance 2 weeks

    3. 3

      Publish

      Institutional site.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 week

    4. 4

      Link

      Competitor comparisons and decks.

      Product Marketing Manager, Prime & Markets 1 week

    5. 5

      Update

      At every launch.

      Product Marketing Manager, Prime & Markets ongoing

    6. 6

      Measure

      Questions and page use.

      Product Marketing Manager, Prime & Markets quarterly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Product Marketing Manager, Prime & Markets

    Smallest test

    Share the matrix with sales internally first.

    Why it works

    Publish and maintain a matrix of products by region (spot, futures, options, cross-margin, custody) with status and the next step for clients, linked from sales materials and competitor comparisons.

    One trusted source saves sales time and avoids promising unavailable products.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Out-of-date status

      Update as part of every launch checklist.

    Evidence

    • HiringProduct Marketing Manager, Prime & Markets: positioning for "spot, derivatives, cross-margin, liquidity, and execution workflows used by hundreds of hedge funds, asset managers, and market makers"; builds "talk tracks, FAQs, competitor comparisons, demos"; and must "Drive clarity around what's live, what's next, and what action clients should take across regions with varying regulatory constraints".Source
    • News coverageThe "everything exchange": announced January 2026 and presented at a June 2026 System Update event, it brings crypto, equities, prediction markets and commodities into one app, with tokenized stocks backed one-for-one, launching first outside the US, and US stock and ETF trading with portfolio transfers from other brokerages.Source
  • 16

    The infrastructure PMM runs co-marketing with tier-one partners from launch through activation. Each partner launch is usually rebuilt from scratch.

    Medium impactMedium effort First result in 2 quarters Senior Product Marketing Mana…

    First action

    Draft the kit from the last partner launch.

    How to measure it

    Partner-sourced leads

    Now
    –
    Target
    +30%
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Review past launches

      What worked.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 1 week

    2. 2

      Build templates

      Announcement and case study.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 2 weeks

    3. 3

      Agree metrics

      Shared dashboard.

      Data Science 1 week

    4. 4

      Use on three launches

      Next partners.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 1 quarter

    5. 5

      Collect results

      Leads and activation.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure monthly

    6. 6

      Refine

      After each launch.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure ongoing

    First result
    2 quarters
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure

    Smallest test

    Use the kit on the next partner launch.

    Why it works

    Create a standard kit: announcement templates, a co-branded case study format, a joint webinar plan and shared metrics. Use it on the next three partner launches.

    A kit makes partner launches faster and comparable.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Partners want custom work

      Keep the core fixed and customize one part.

    Evidence

    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure (posted October 15, 2026): builds demand for "stablecoin payments, trading, agentic finance, and custody products" among "PSPs, money movers, cross-border companies, and banks"; drives marketing for "Coinbase for Agents and agentic payments"; runs co-marketing "with tier-one partners".Source
    • News coverageIn July 2026 Coinbase Business began accepting USDC payments from AI agents over x402; Brian Armstrong cited about $1 trillion a year in stablecoin payments on Coinbase and more than 160 million x402 payments over the past year.Source

Big bets 3

Larger plays that can change the trajectory.

  • 17

    Coinbase has sitemaps for prices, price predictions, equities and prediction markets, and the everything exchange puts them in one app. Price pages attract huge search traffic; Predict has live event markets.

    High impactHigh effort First result in 3 quarters SEO lead

    First action

    List 20 price pages with a related market.

    How to measure it

    Price-page to Predict trades

    Now
    –
    Target
    10,000 a month
    By
    3 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Map markets

      Assets to events.

      SEO lead 1 month

    2. 2

      Compliance

      Where it can show.

      Legal and Compliance 1 month

    3. 3

      Build module

      Live odds widget.

      Web Platform Engineering 1 quarter

    4. 4

      Keep it fast

      Lazy load below the fold.

      Web Platform Engineering ongoing

    5. 5

      Launch

      20 pages first.

      SEO lead 1 month

    6. 6

      Measure

      Trades and rankings.

      Data Science monthly

    First result
    3 quarters
    Cost
    Engineering time
    Owner
    SEO lead

    Smallest test

    Add the module to one high-traffic page.

    Why it works

    Where a related, compliant market exists, add a module to price and stock pages showing the live market odds (for example on a rate decision or ETF approval) with a link to trade, plus cross-links between assets. Measure Predict signups from price pages.

    It turns passive price lookups into a reason to act, and no competitor has both price pages and event markets at this scale.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Regulatory limits

      Show only where permitted.

    Evidence

    • Your websiterobots.txt lists 15 sitemaps (converter, derivatives, prediction markets, equities, how-to-buy, prices, price prediction, staking, learn, Bytes, institutional, blog, marketing, advanced, careers) and explicitly allows social preview bots and AdsBot-Google. On October 21, 2026 a standard HTTP client received HTTP 403 for the homepage, /price/bitcoin, /predictions, /blog, /affiliates and help.coinbase.com, while robots.txt itself loaded.Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
    • News coverageThe "everything exchange": announced January 2026 and presented at a June 2026 System Update event, it brings crypto, equities, prediction markets and commodities into one app, with tokenized stocks backed one-for-one, launching first outside the US, and US stock and ETF trading with portfolio transfers from other brokerages.Source
    • Competitor researchRivals' own homepages: Robinhood, "24/5 Commission-Free Stock Trading & Investing" with the headline "Trade All in One Place"; Kraken, "Own the Power of Your Money - Crypto, Stocks & more", "Trade crypto, stocks, futures, staking and more"; Polymarket, "The World's Largest Prediction Market". Kalshi also sells event contracts directly.Source
  • 18

    Coinbase cites more than 160 million x402 payments and leads agentic finance. No one else has that data.

    High impactHigh effort First result in 3 quarters Senior Product Marketing Mana…

    First action

    Pick ten metrics that can be published.

    How to measure it

    Report downloads

    Now
    –
    Target
    10,000
    By
    3 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Pick metrics

      Ten aggregates.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 2 weeks

    2. 2

      Pull data

      On-chain and internal.

      Data Science 1 month

    3. 3

      Privacy review

      No customer identifiable.

      Legal and Compliance 2 weeks

    4. 4

      Write

      Report and summary.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 1 month

    5. 5

      Launch

      With partners.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure 1 month

    6. 6

      Repeat

      Quarterly.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure quarterly

    First result
    3 quarters
    Cost
    Analyst time
    Owner
    Senior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure

    Smallest test

    Publish one chart on social.

    Why it works

    Publish quarterly aggregate stats: payment counts, categories, average sizes, growth by chain, with commentary. Launch with partners and developer media.

    Original data earns press and citations and positions Coinbase as the source on agent payments.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Numbers look small in a slow quarter

      Report trends and context.

    Evidence

    • News coverageIn July 2026 Coinbase Business began accepting USDC payments from AI agents over x402; Brian Armstrong cited about $1 trillion a year in stablecoin payments on Coinbase and more than 160 million x402 payments over the past year.Source
    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Infrastructure (posted October 15, 2026): builds demand for "stablecoin payments, trading, agentic finance, and custody products" among "PSPs, money movers, cross-border companies, and banks"; drives marketing for "Coinbase for Agents and agentic payments"; runs co-marketing "with tier-one partners".Source
    • Developer reachCoinbase's npm packages get about 2.5 million downloads a week, led by @coinbase/wallet-sdk (1.86 million) and @coinbase/cdp-sdk (663,000); the agentkit repository ("Every AI Agent deserves a wallet.") has 1,336 GitHub stars and was updated October 14, 2026.Source
  • 19

    The everything exchange combines crypto, stocks, derivatives and Predict, and growth infrastructure powers targeting and lifecycle messages. New users now face many products at once.

    High impactHigh effort First result in 3 quarters Product Manager II

    First action

    Map today's first-week messages.

    How to measure it

    30-day retention

    Now
    –
    Target
    +3 points
    By
    3 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Map journeys

      Current messages.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 2 weeks

    2. 2

      Add goal question

      At signup.

      Product Designer 1 month

    3. 3

      Build journeys

      Per goal.

      Senior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations) 1 quarter

    4. 4

      Test

      Against current flow.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 1 quarter

    5. 5

      Measure

      Retention.

      Data Science monthly

    6. 6

      Scale

      All markets.

      Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications 1 quarter

    First result
    3 quarters
    Cost
    Engineering time
    Owner
    Product Manager II, Growth Notifications

    Smallest test

    Test the goal question with 5% of signups.

    Why it works

    Design a first-week journey that asks about goals at signup and guides each user to one first action that fits (buy crypto, buy a stock, follow a market), then introduces one more product a week. Measure 30-day retention.

    A guided start reduces overwhelm and raises early retention.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Too many paths

      Start with three goals.

    Evidence

    • News coverageThe "everything exchange": announced January 2026 and presented at a June 2026 System Update event, it brings crypto, equities, prediction markets and commodities into one app, with tokenized stocks backed one-for-one, launching first outside the US, and US stock and ETF trading with portfolio transfers from other brokerages.Source
    • HiringSenior Software Engineer, Backend (Consumer - Growth Foundations): the team owns "notifications at scale, incentives and referral platforms, user targeting and segmentation, lifecycle communications, and ML ranking that power more than 50% of Coinbase web and app surfaces" for Retail, Institutional, Base and international teams.Source
    • HiringProduct Manager II, Growth - Notifications (posted September 15, 2026): owns "the end-to-end notifications platform spanning push, in-app, and email", using "ML-powered relevance to increase activation, re-engagement, and lifetime value", building relevance models to "reduce notification fatigue", and A/B testing "notification timing, content, and channel selection"; experience with "opt-in optimization, and frequency management" is required.Source
    • SEC filingCoinbase's 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026: monthly transacting users were 7.6 million, down from 8.7 million a year earlier, "primarily" because of fewer trading users amid market conditions; trading volume is no longer reported as a key metric.Source

Wildcards 3

Unexpected experiments, each with a cheap way to test it.

  • 20

    Coinbase has a Bytes newsletter (its own sitemap) and a new Predictions social role. A daily market gives both a reason to open.

    Medium impactLow effort First result in 1 month Social Media Manager

    First action

    Pick the first week's markets.

    How to measure it

    Trades from market of the day

    Now
    –
    Target
    5,000 a month
    By
    1 quarter

    Steps

    1. 1

      Pick markets

      Daily.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions daily

    2. 2

      Write context

      Short.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions daily

    3. 3

      Compliance

      Template approval.

      Legal and Compliance 1 week

    4. 4

      Publish

      Bytes and X.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions daily

    5. 5

      Measure

      Opens and trades.

      Data Science weekly

    6. 6

      Decide

      Keep after a quarter.

      Social Media Manager, Predictions 1 quarter

    First result
    1 month
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Social Media Manager, Predictions

    Smallest test

    Run it for two weeks.

    Why it works

    Feature one market a day with context and live odds in Bytes and as a pinned post, linking to the market. Track opens and Predict trades.

    A daily habit drives repeat visits at low cost.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Repetition fatigue

      Vary categories.

    Evidence

    • Your websiterobots.txt lists 15 sitemaps (converter, derivatives, prediction markets, equities, how-to-buy, prices, price prediction, staking, learn, Bytes, institutional, blog, marketing, advanced, careers) and explicitly allows social preview bots and AdsBot-Google. On October 21, 2026 a standard HTTP client received HTTP 403 for the homepage, /price/bitcoin, /predictions, /blog, /affiliates and help.coinbase.com, while robots.txt itself loaded.Source
    • HiringSocial Media Manager, Predictions (posted October 15, 2026): grows "Coinbase's prediction markets presence, starting with @CoinbasePredict on X", turning "live markets into real-time content across finance, sports, politics and culture"; builds "AI-assisted workflows that let the team post fast and stay compliant" with legal and compliance.Source
    • News coverageCoinbase made prediction markets live in all 50 US states on January 28, 2026, built with Kalshi, under a "Predict" tab in the app; trades can be funded with cash or USDC.Source
  • 21

    The trading PMM must reach first-time derivatives users and run trading competitions. Beginners fear perps and options.

    Medium impactMedium effort First result in 1 quarter Senior Product Marketing Mana…

    First action

    Design the first competition.

    How to measure it

    New derivatives traders

    Now
    –
    Target
    +20%
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      Design rules

      No real money.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 2 weeks

    2. 2

      Build mode

      Paper trading.

      Trading Engineering 1 quarter

    3. 3

      Lessons

      Short videos.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 1 month

    4. 4

      Compliance

      Promotion wording.

      Legal and Compliance 2 weeks

    5. 5

      Launch

      Weekly competition.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 1 month

    6. 6

      Measure

      Graduation and retention.

      Data Science monthly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Engineering time
    Owner
    Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading

    Smallest test

    Run one competition with a simple leaderboard.

    Why it works

    Offer a paper-trading mode with a weekly beginner competition (no real money), with lessons, and invite top learners to trade with real funds after eligibility checks.

    Practice builds confidence and reduces early losses that cause churn.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Practice encourages risky trading

      Risk lessons and limits.

    Evidence

    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Trading: defines "the narrative that Coinbase is the best place to trade across asset classes, from spot to perpetual futures and options"; runs "win-back programs targeting churned traders" and "trading competitions, incentives, event-driven campaigns"; studies segments "from first-time derivatives users to active traders with accounts at competitors".Source
    • News coverageThe "everything exchange": announced January 2026 and presented at a June 2026 System Update event, it brings crypto, equities, prediction markets and commodities into one app, with tokenized stocks backed one-for-one, launching first outside the US, and US stock and ETF trading with portfolio transfers from other brokerages.Source
  • 22

    Reddit is one of the paid social channels the UA team will run. Traders ask detailed questions there about fees, perps and transfers.

    Medium impactLow effort First result in 1 quarter Senior Performance Marketing…

    First action

    List the top ten trading subreddits and their rules.

    How to measure it

    Reddit signups

    Now
    –
    Target
    +25%
    By
    2 quarters

    Steps

    1. 1

      List communities

      Top ten.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA 1 week

    2. 2

      Pick experts

      Product people.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading 1 week

    3. 3

      Host AMAs

      Monthly.

      Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading monthly

    4. 4

      Answer

      Weekly threads.

      Community team weekly

    5. 5

      Reuse

      Questions as ad copy.

      Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA monthly

    6. 6

      Measure

      Signups.

      Data Science monthly

    First result
    1 quarter
    Cost
    Staff time only
    Owner
    Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA

    Smallest test

    Host one AMA.

    Why it works

    Have product experts host monthly verified AMAs and answer top questions in trading communities (following each community's rules), and use the best questions as ad copy.

    Organic answers build trust in the same place paid ads will run.

    Risks and how to handle them

    • Community backlash

      Be transparent and follow rules.

    Evidence

    • HiringSenior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA (posted September 15, 2026): owns "hundreds of millions in ad spend across paid social and mobile channels" (Meta, TikTok, Snap, Reddit and mobile display) "to drive new user acquisition at or above ROI targets", with a testing agenda "across creatives, audiences, bidding strategies, and app store/landing experiences" and measurement through MMM, SKAN, MMPs and "incrementality tests".Source
    • HiringSenior Product Marketing Manager, Trading: defines "the narrative that Coinbase is the best place to trade across asset classes, from spot to perpetual futures and options"; runs "win-back programs targeting churned traders" and "trading competitions, incentives, event-driven campaigns"; studies segments "from first-time derivatives users to active traders with accounts at competitors".Source
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See every playbook and website review

Independent research. Programmable wrote this playbook from public sources, as they stood on October 22, 2026, and cites them throughout. Coinbase did not commission, review or endorse it, and Programmable is not affiliated with Coinbase. Company and product names are trademarks of their owners, used only to identify them. The ideas are suggestions and opinion, not professional, legal or financial advice, and not statements about how Coinbase runs its business.

Something wrong, or do you represent Coinbase? Email [email protected] and we will correct it or take it down.

30/60/90 roadmap

What to focus on in each month, and the ideas that carry it.

  1. Days 1 to 306 ideas

    Landing speed, official offer pages, broken links, Predict topic opt-ins, social templates and crawler access.

  2. Days 31 to 6012 ideas

    Win-back, brokerage transfers, paid incrementality, Predict creative, notification models, market cards, payments pages, agent developers, availability matrix, partner kit; market of the day and Reddit.

  3. Days 61 to 904 ideas

    Price-page odds, the agentic payments report, the first-week journey and practice mode.

The research behind the plan

3 research areas, each summarised in a few lines. Open any of them for the full detail.

Customers

What customers say

Customers value A trusted, regulated US platform. The most cited problem: fees compared with rivals.

  • An easy app for buying crypto
  • Complex derivatives products
  • In their words: “trade”

Market

Competitive landscape

4 competitors compared: Robinhood, Kraken, Polymarket and Kalshi.

  • Gap to exploit: Event odds next to asset prices
  • Robinhood: Less crypto depth
  • Kraken: Smaller US retail reach

Hiring signals

Coinbase is hiring around growth and retention: a performance marketer for hundreds of millions in paid social and mobile acquisition (ideas 1, 9, 10, 22), a notifications PM and growth infrastructure engineers for…

  • Senior Performance Marketing Manager, Global Paid Social & Mobile UA: Hundreds of millions in paid social; landing experiences. Ideas 1, 9, 10.
  • Product Manager II, Growth - Notifications: Opt-ins, fatigue and channel selection. Ideas 4, 11.
  • Senior Product Marketing Manager, Trading: Win-back of churned traders. Ideas 7, 8, 21.

From the team that wrote this playbook

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  • ProgrammableCommunityForums with labelled AI members, never empty (opens programmable.community in a new tab)
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